After the first half of 2021, the biggest increase of potassium chloride reached 2000 RMB / ton, especially in the last June, the single month increase was more than 1000 RMB. Recently, this potassium chloride is really crazy. Although it has reached the second highest price in history, it is still about 1000 RMB away from the highest price in 2008, but in terms of momentum alone, it can be said that 2021 has created a new history. In fact, the price rise of potassium chloride has been lack of substantial factors to support, so no matter how fierce it is, it is just a castle in the air. Once it turns downward, it is likely to be a mess.

The biggest increase of potassium chloride in the first half of the year reached 2000 RMB / ton, with a monthly increase of over 1000 RMB in June.

First of all, the main reason for the price increase of potassium chloride is that the supply of goods may be tight, but it is still "possible" until now, especially with the increase of high price sales pressure and the obvious downward trend of downstream operation rate, the possibility of such tension has been shaken. Customs data show that the import volume of potassium chloride from January to may reached 4.04 million tons, minus a small amount of exports, the actual supply volume was about 3.9 million tons. Last year, the total transshipment inventory of the port and Qinghai was about 3.6 million tons, and the immovable storage of China was 1.5 million tons. Due to the poor ore source situation and other reasons, it is preliminarily estimated that the KCl production capacity may be reduced to 6.5-7 million tons this year. That is to say, regardless of the import volume in the later stage, the supply volume can be determined at present is about 12.5-13 million tons. The annual consumption of potassium chloride is generally in the range of 14-16 million tons. At present, it seems that the operating rate of the downstream has obviously declined. It is expected that the operating rate of potassium sulfate will continue to decline in the later period, and the content of potassium will be reduced by compound fertilizer. Therefore, the consumption of this year is expected to be at the low end or even lower. If the amount of goods delivered is not so small, or the demand is reduced more severely, then does potassium chloride still rise?

Secondly, there used to be a very important reason for the price increase of potassium chloride, but now it is gone, that is, the price of single nutrient content is low. At present, the price of 62% white potassium in the port is 66 RMB, while nitrogen and phosphorus are still about 60 RMB. At the same time, the government pays more and more attention to the sharp rise of fertilizer prices. With the implementation of relevant measures, the possibility of urea prices going down in the later stage has gradually increased. The further rise of ammonium phosphate is likely to be limited. If nitrogen and phosphorus no longer rise or even fall back, the market mentality will change. Where can potassium chloride go alone?

Third, on the one hand, the harm of the epidemic is gradually diminishing, on the other hand, inflation in the upper reaches is widespread internationally, and all countries are trying to solve it, so the overheated food and fertilizer prices will always have an end. In terms of potash fertilizer, although there are price factors such as rising freight rate, Meisheng's production reduction and Belarusian export restriction, there are buffer factors such as increasing potash production and new production capacity, as well as the potential threat of excessive high low price difference in various regions. Moreover, the high-end of the domestic actual price has been equal to the high-end of the international market. In the later stage, even if the big contract rises sharply, from a certain point of view, the strength of price support is limited.

In short, China needs the world, and the world needs China. In the face of the possible tension of potash fertilizer, we still have the strength to fight against it. Even if there are black swans flying in later period, the supply of goods will be very tight, but for another reason, the rise of potassium chloride in June is too much. Today, the author does not give the seller the suggestion to sell or not to sell, only suggests that the downstream continue to reduce the demand for potassium chloride within the scope of possible, to help the market return to rationality. If the upper link can find a way to import more potash fertilizer, it would be better!

  From China Fertilizer Web