A fertilizer market expert is not surprised about recent reports saying Belarus potash production and exports might be reduced.

Josh Linville with StoneX tells Brownfield potash saw a huge price correction coming out of the 2021-2022 spike, with prices dropping to about a third of where it peaked, and then prices stayed there. “When prices get low, they can’t go forever. Eventually, the manufacturers push back, and that happens in a way where they want to start reducing production and they want other producers to do the same thing. Reduce the supply and demand doesn’t change, prices elevate or at the very least, stops it from sliding.”

Linville says if Belarus cuts production, others may follow. “I don’t think Belarus is big enough by themselves to affect the marketplace in a very big way, but now if you all of the sudden start seeing Russian producers do the same thing, and especially if you start seeing Canada determine they need to do the same thing, now we’ve got a big, big story line.”

Linville says farmers need to act if they want potash for the 2025 growing season. “We’re pulling off a pretty big crop anyway that’s going to remove a lot of nutrients. I think the time of dragging our feet hoping that something changes, I think that is behind us. I think that’s probably the kick in the pants we need to just go ahead and get rolling with it.”

Linville says with Belarus and Russia accounting for around a third of world potash production, cutbacks would make the nutrient a lot more expensive, so farmers should not wait if they need it.

Source：Brownfieldagnews