IndexBox has just published a new report: Africa - NPK Fertilizers - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights. Driven by growing demand for NPK fertilizers, the African market is set to see continued growth in the coming years. Despite a forecasted deceleration in market performance, both volume and value are expected to increase steadily, with a CAGR of +2.6% and +3.5% respectively, leading to significant growth by 2035. 

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 6M tons by the end of 2035. In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $4B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035. 

Consumption

Africa's Consumption of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2024, approx. 4.5M tons of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers were consumed in Africa; surging by 6.9% against 2023. In general, consumption enjoyed resilient growth. The volume of consumption peaked in 2024 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

The size of the NPK fertilizer market in Africa expanded markedly to $2.7B in 2024, growing by 14% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption saw a prominent increase. The level of consumption peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of NPK fertilizer consumption was Morocco (2M tons), accounting for 44% of total volume. Moreover, NPK fertilizer consumption in Morocco exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Egypt (428K tons), fivefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Kenya (370K tons), with an 8.2% share.

In Morocco, NPK fertilizer consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +11.9% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Egypt (+1.0% per year) and Kenya (+9.4% per year).

In value terms, Morocco ($949M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Egypt ($390M). It was followed by Kenya.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in Morocco amounted to +13.8%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Egypt (+2.3% per year) and Kenya (+14.9% per year).

In 2024, the highest levels of NPK fertilizer per capita consumption was registered in Morocco (51 kg per person), followed by Benin (17 kg per person), Togo (11 kg per person) and Senegal (10 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of NPK fertilizer was estimated at 3.1 kg per person.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the NPK fertilizer per capita consumption in Morocco stood at +10.5%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Benin (+17.8% per year) and Togo (+4.2% per year). 

Production

Africa's Production of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

NPK fertilizer production rose modestly to 3.6M tons in 2024, growing by 3.1% on the previous year. Overall, production recorded prominent growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the production volume increased by 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production reached the peak volume at 3.7M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, NPK fertilizer production amounted to $2.1B in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production enjoyed buoyant growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the production volume increased by 34%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $2.2B. From 2023 to 2024, production growth remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

Morocco (2.4M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of NPK fertilizer production, comprising approx. 68% of total volume. Moreover, NPK fertilizer production in Morocco exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Egypt (427K tons), sixfold. South Africa (256K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 7.2% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Morocco amounted to +13.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Egypt (+1.1% per year) and South Africa (+1.1% per year). 

Imports

Africa's Imports of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

NPK fertilizer imports contracted slightly to 1.8M tons in 2024, dropping by -4.1% compared with 2023. Total imports indicated a notable expansion from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 63% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 2.5M tons. From 2018 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, NPK fertilizer imports skyrocketed to $1.5B in 2024. Overall, imports, however, showed a prominent expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 39%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs in 2024 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term. 

Imports By Country

In 2024, Kenya (405K tons), distantly followed by Benin (230K tons), Burkina Faso (154K tons), Cote d'Ivoire (113K tons), Ghana (110K tons), Zambia (108K tons) and Tanzania (100K tons) were the key importers of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers, together constituting 69% of total imports. Malawi (70K tons), Morocco (56K tons) and Mali (54K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Benin (with a CAGR of +21.1%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Kenya ($473M) constitutes the largest market for imported mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers in Africa, comprising 31% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Ghana ($150M), with a 9.9% share of total imports. It was followed by Tanzania, with a 7.5% share.

In Kenya, NPK fertilizer imports expanded at an average annual rate of +19.6% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Ghana (+10.7% per year) and Tanzania (+8.0% per year). 

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the import price in Africa amounted to $850 per ton, jumping by 40% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate tangible growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the import price increased by 43%. The level of import peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Ghana ($1,358 per ton), while Burkina Faso ($417 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Ghana (+9.3%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

Africa's Exports of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2024, npk fertilizer exports in Africa dropped remarkably to 815K tons, with a decrease of -23.7% on the previous year. In general, exports, however, saw resilient growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when exports increased by 55% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at 1.5M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, NPK fertilizer exports dropped sharply to $412M in 2024. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw resilient growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 99%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $670M. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Morocco prevails in exports structure, accounting for 496K tons, which was near 61% of total exports in 2024. Cote d'Ivoire (78K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 9.5% share, followed by Zambia (4.6%). Kenya (35K tons), Mali (35K tons), Senegal (31K tons), Ghana (29K tons), South Africa (23K tons) and Mozambique (18K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from Morocco increased at an average annual rate of +18.9% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Zambia (+53.2%), Ghana (+22.4%), Kenya (+14.7%), Mozambique (+5.7%) and Cote d'Ivoire (+4.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Zambia emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Africa, with a CAGR of +53.2% from 2013-2024. By contrast, Senegal (-2.5%), Mali (-9.0%) and South Africa (-11.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2024, the share of Morocco, Zambia, Ghana and Kenya increased by +43, +4.6, +2.8 and +2.4 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Morocco ($210M) remains the largest NPK fertilizer supplier in Africa, comprising 51% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Cote d'Ivoire ($38M), with a 9.2% share of total exports. It was followed by Kenya, with a 7.6% share.

In Morocco, NPK fertilizer exports expanded at an average annual rate of +20.7% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Cote d'Ivoire (+3.3% per year) and Kenya (+21.0% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The export price in Africa stood at $506 per ton in 2024, with a decrease of -3.4% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a mild decline. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 when the export price increased by 44% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $640 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was South Africa ($1,265 per ton), while Ghana ($121 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa (+6.3%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform